Well, for as long as the current 'generation' in diplomacy lasts, at least.
Which probably means 'until after the next global conflict'. Glances at the date
How are the Balkans this time of century?
Why the Chinese play cricket (an Imperial Federation timeline)
- Thread starter Miss Construction
- Start date
Which probably means 'until after the next global conflict'. Glances at the date
How are the Balkans this time of century?
The Balkans are about to heat up quite dramatically and the world is now very firmly on the Great War Express. Expect these galliformes to return to the nesting box in around five years.
The British have over the past 30 or so years been able to successfully split Indian nationalism in two. With the moderates willing to accept the balkanisation while the radicals are demanding a single pan-Indian state. How things go will be interesting.
July-Sept 1907: Family squabbles
~July-Sept 1907: Family squabbles
July 1907: With Anglo-French relations continuing to deteriorate, Emperor Napoleon IV privately expresses his concerns to Prime Minister Gabriel Hantaux, stressing the importance of British support during the Tangier Crisis. Hantaux dismisses these concerns, claiming British support was a minor factor and the French success can be attributed to the Franco-Russian Entente. Hantaux goes further, stating despite the recent Anglo-Russian agreement over Persia, the Isan Crisis will produce a similar success due to British fears regarding Russia over India.
July 1907: Despite hopes the deadlock of the previous Quebec Imperial Conference can be avoided, the Johannesburg Imperial Conference is again dominated by the Canadian government of Wilfred Laurier's efforts to halt or even reverse the process of Imperial Integration. The conference opens with discussion of the growing Isan Crisis in Siam, which immediately highlights the divide between the Canadians and the rest of the Empire. While there is common concern the improved relations with France may be in jeopardy, there is a vast gulf between the Canadians and other delegations on how to respond. The Canadians argue for compromise and acceptance of French expansion, while the consensus in the rest of the Empire is a firm stand should be taken to prevent any further French encroachment into Siam. Suggestions the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt should be forward deployed to the East Indies are met with a Canadian threat to withdraw their troops from the force. Eventually after much argument the Canadians reluctantly accept the upgrading to the Royal Navy's China Station to a full squadron along with the deployment of several modern cruisers and two New Zealand class battleships. However the Canadians then attempt to use their acceptance of this as leverage to roll back the Imperial Common Market, but find even less support than in 1905, with even Newfoundland now unwilling to support Premier Laurier's demands.
July 1907: With the conference seemingly deadlocked again, Prime Minister Charles Dilke has few hopes when he once more raises the Issue of Indian inclusion in the Imperial common market. Much to his surprise he finds support from Newfoundland, New Zealand and Fiji, with the most of the remaining Dominions willing to consider some concessions. But again, Canadian intransigence blocks any consensus, however the three Dominions who strongly supported the move will go on to reduce tariffs on Indian goods. Once again the conference fails to achieve anything of note, with many now openly expressing anger the Canadians and fearing a similar result at the Brisbane Imperial Conference in 1909.
July 1907: With the new French Obusier de 105mm Modèle 1907 field howitzer, Canon de 127mm Modèle 1907 heavy gun and Obusier de 155mm Modèle 1907 heavy howitzer ready to enter service, the Emperor begins advocating the development of even larger weapons for the superheavy role shown to be necessary after the Russo-Japanese War. However the military establishment firmly committed to the existing doctrine based around the 75mm Mle 1897 field gun, is extremely reluctant to sanction the widespread adoption of the weapons already developed, let alone develop larger ones.
August 1907: In a major escalation of the Isan Crisis, the French demand the Siamese cede a number of border regions to French Indochina. British Prime Minister Charles Dilke issues a formal protest, stating this is a breach of the 1901 London Agreement. The French ignore the protest, instead moving troops toward the border. In response the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt is placed on alert. As Canadian participation in the Boer War was deeply unpopular with his support base, Premier Wilfred Laurier withdraws the 3,000 Canadian troops in the corps. This decision will trigger what will be known as the 1907 Imperial Constitutional Crisis, as well provoking widespread outrage in both Canada and the wider Empire.
August 1907: With Anglo-French tensions rising due to the Isan Crisis, the 1907/08 estimates for the Royal Navy include four new dreadnoughts and two improved Invincible class battlecruisers, along with an additional Swift class flotilla leader with five more Tribal class destroyers and twelve Cricket class coastal destroyers are ordered. The St Vincent class dreadnoughts will be considerably larger than the previous Bellerophon class, retaining their improved protection but adding another twin turret superfiring aft to bring the number of guns to ten, all capable of bearing on the broadside. The Indefatigable class battlecruisers are an enlarged version of the earlier Invincible class, with the additional tonnage dedicated to slightly improved protection. These two classes also feature a radical new turret, taking into account the lesson of the 'Battle of the Kentish Coast' with sighting hoods altered to avoid blast effects on lower superfiring turrets, along with the magazine place below the shell room to improve flash protection. The estimates also include two D class submarines. Far larger than all earlier Royal Navy submarines, these boats introduce diesel propulsion and are the first British submarines capable of operating outside of coastal waters.
August 1907: With official persecution of the anarchist movement having subsided since the mid 1890s, the Black International holds it's first Anarchist Congress since 1893 in Amsterdam. The congress is dominated by a debate over the approach which should be followed to bring about a true socialist society. One faction, headed by Pierre Monatte argues for Propaganda of the Deed and armed revolution. They are opposed by the syndicalists headed by Errico Malatesta, who believe in a workers trade union approach. While no resolution is achieved, the majority favour Malatesta's syndicalist approach which be the focus of the Black International going forward.
August 1907: Despite some concerns a number of Liberal MPs may cross the floor to vote against it, the Government of India Bill is expected to comfortably pass the Commons. However, its passage through the far more conservative leaning Lords is less certain. With fears opposition to the bill may lead to civil disorder in India, Prime Minister Charles Dilke hold private talks with Conservative leader Arthur Balfour in an effort to reach a compromise to ensure the bill's passage. Dilke makes it clear while he is willing to use the provisions of the Parliament Act to ensure the Bill becomes law, he would prefer a rapid passage to minimise any potential disorder on the sub continent and is therefore willing to modify the bill to make it more acceptable. After lengthy discussions, Balfour demands the removal of the provision for the five year review, seen as moving toward to further India self government, as well as the inclusion of an explicit veto over any Indian legislation by the Provincial Governor, Viceroy or British Cabinet. In order to guarantee the bill's passage before the end of the year, Dilke conceded to these points and the bill is modified accordingly
September 1907: With the Brazilian warships order the previous year now having been laid down. the two US built Dom Pedro II class armoured cruisers dating from the 1890s are renamed Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais to free up their names for the new dreadnoughts. With their economy still booming, the Brazilians order two light cruisers and ten destroyers in Britain. This building program will result in a fleet which will far outmatch either Argentine or Chilean navies, causing considerable alarm in both countries.
September 1907: Premier Wilfred Laurier's decision to refuse to allow Canadian troops to be deployed along with the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt has enabled the opposition to move a vote of no confidence. The election which follows is dominated by the issue of Imperial integration. The election is deeply divisive, with the Dominion split into pro and anti Imperial camps. However Robert Borden's Conservative party will win a clear majority, taking 121 seats as against Laurier's Liberals 96 seats, with another four held by independents. One of the new government's first actions is to reverse the decision to refuse to allow Canadian troops to be deployed with the Imperial Army Corps.
September 1907: The US Army forms the Aeronautical Division of the Army Signal Corps to investigate the military use of aircraft. This will be the world's first dedicated military aviation service. The new service will contract with aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss for a non rigid airship and the Wright Brothers for a heavier than air craft to evaluate.
September 1907: The growing Isan Crisis has deeply concerned both the US and Japanese governments. With an Anglo-French war now appearing a possibility, Japanese Ambassador to US Aoki Shūzū and US Secretary of State Elihu Root hold urgent discussions in Washington regarding the crisis. The talks result in a joint call from Japanese Prime Minister Saionji Kinmochi and US President Theodore Roosevelt for talks to resolve the situation. While the British immediately agree, French Prime Minister Gabriel Hantaux refuses, believing the Canadian refusal to allow their troops to be deployed gives them a decisive upper hand. However Emperor Napoleon IV intervenes, openly expressing his support for such talks, forcing Hantaux to agrees to talks in Oslo mediated by Norwegian King Haakon VII.
July 1907: With Anglo-French relations continuing to deteriorate, Emperor Napoleon IV privately expresses his concerns to Prime Minister Gabriel Hantaux, stressing the importance of British support during the Tangier Crisis. Hantaux dismisses these concerns, claiming British support was a minor factor and the French success can be attributed to the Franco-Russian Entente. Hantaux goes further, stating despite the recent Anglo-Russian agreement over Persia, the Isan Crisis will produce a similar success due to British fears regarding Russia over India.
July 1907: Despite hopes the deadlock of the previous Quebec Imperial Conference can be avoided, the Johannesburg Imperial Conference is again dominated by the Canadian government of Wilfred Laurier's efforts to halt or even reverse the process of Imperial Integration. The conference opens with discussion of the growing Isan Crisis in Siam, which immediately highlights the divide between the Canadians and the rest of the Empire. While there is common concern the improved relations with France may be in jeopardy, there is a vast gulf between the Canadians and other delegations on how to respond. The Canadians argue for compromise and acceptance of French expansion, while the consensus in the rest of the Empire is a firm stand should be taken to prevent any further French encroachment into Siam. Suggestions the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt should be forward deployed to the East Indies are met with a Canadian threat to withdraw their troops from the force. Eventually after much argument the Canadians reluctantly accept the upgrading to the Royal Navy's China Station to a full squadron along with the deployment of several modern cruisers and two New Zealand class battleships. However the Canadians then attempt to use their acceptance of this as leverage to roll back the Imperial Common Market, but find even less support than in 1905, with even Newfoundland now unwilling to support Premier Laurier's demands.
July 1907: With the conference seemingly deadlocked again, Prime Minister Charles Dilke has few hopes when he once more raises the Issue of Indian inclusion in the Imperial common market. Much to his surprise he finds support from Newfoundland, New Zealand and Fiji, with the most of the remaining Dominions willing to consider some concessions. But again, Canadian intransigence blocks any consensus, however the three Dominions who strongly supported the move will go on to reduce tariffs on Indian goods. Once again the conference fails to achieve anything of note, with many now openly expressing anger the Canadians and fearing a similar result at the Brisbane Imperial Conference in 1909.
July 1907: With the new French Obusier de 105mm Modèle 1907 field howitzer, Canon de 127mm Modèle 1907 heavy gun and Obusier de 155mm Modèle 1907 heavy howitzer ready to enter service, the Emperor begins advocating the development of even larger weapons for the superheavy role shown to be necessary after the Russo-Japanese War. However the military establishment firmly committed to the existing doctrine based around the 75mm Mle 1897 field gun, is extremely reluctant to sanction the widespread adoption of the weapons already developed, let alone develop larger ones.
August 1907: In a major escalation of the Isan Crisis, the French demand the Siamese cede a number of border regions to French Indochina. British Prime Minister Charles Dilke issues a formal protest, stating this is a breach of the 1901 London Agreement. The French ignore the protest, instead moving troops toward the border. In response the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt is placed on alert. As Canadian participation in the Boer War was deeply unpopular with his support base, Premier Wilfred Laurier withdraws the 3,000 Canadian troops in the corps. This decision will trigger what will be known as the 1907 Imperial Constitutional Crisis, as well provoking widespread outrage in both Canada and the wider Empire.
August 1907: With Anglo-French tensions rising due to the Isan Crisis, the 1907/08 estimates for the Royal Navy include four new dreadnoughts and two improved Invincible class battlecruisers, along with an additional Swift class flotilla leader with five more Tribal class destroyers and twelve Cricket class coastal destroyers are ordered. The St Vincent class dreadnoughts will be considerably larger than the previous Bellerophon class, retaining their improved protection but adding another twin turret superfiring aft to bring the number of guns to ten, all capable of bearing on the broadside. The Indefatigable class battlecruisers are an enlarged version of the earlier Invincible class, with the additional tonnage dedicated to slightly improved protection. These two classes also feature a radical new turret, taking into account the lesson of the 'Battle of the Kentish Coast' with sighting hoods altered to avoid blast effects on lower superfiring turrets, along with the magazine place below the shell room to improve flash protection. The estimates also include two D class submarines. Far larger than all earlier Royal Navy submarines, these boats introduce diesel propulsion and are the first British submarines capable of operating outside of coastal waters.
August 1907: With official persecution of the anarchist movement having subsided since the mid 1890s, the Black International holds it's first Anarchist Congress since 1893 in Amsterdam. The congress is dominated by a debate over the approach which should be followed to bring about a true socialist society. One faction, headed by Pierre Monatte argues for Propaganda of the Deed and armed revolution. They are opposed by the syndicalists headed by Errico Malatesta, who believe in a workers trade union approach. While no resolution is achieved, the majority favour Malatesta's syndicalist approach which be the focus of the Black International going forward.
August 1907: Despite some concerns a number of Liberal MPs may cross the floor to vote against it, the Government of India Bill is expected to comfortably pass the Commons. However, its passage through the far more conservative leaning Lords is less certain. With fears opposition to the bill may lead to civil disorder in India, Prime Minister Charles Dilke hold private talks with Conservative leader Arthur Balfour in an effort to reach a compromise to ensure the bill's passage. Dilke makes it clear while he is willing to use the provisions of the Parliament Act to ensure the Bill becomes law, he would prefer a rapid passage to minimise any potential disorder on the sub continent and is therefore willing to modify the bill to make it more acceptable. After lengthy discussions, Balfour demands the removal of the provision for the five year review, seen as moving toward to further India self government, as well as the inclusion of an explicit veto over any Indian legislation by the Provincial Governor, Viceroy or British Cabinet. In order to guarantee the bill's passage before the end of the year, Dilke conceded to these points and the bill is modified accordingly
September 1907: With the Brazilian warships order the previous year now having been laid down. the two US built Dom Pedro II class armoured cruisers dating from the 1890s are renamed Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais to free up their names for the new dreadnoughts. With their economy still booming, the Brazilians order two light cruisers and ten destroyers in Britain. This building program will result in a fleet which will far outmatch either Argentine or Chilean navies, causing considerable alarm in both countries.
September 1907: Premier Wilfred Laurier's decision to refuse to allow Canadian troops to be deployed along with the Imperial Army Corps in Egypt has enabled the opposition to move a vote of no confidence. The election which follows is dominated by the issue of Imperial integration. The election is deeply divisive, with the Dominion split into pro and anti Imperial camps. However Robert Borden's Conservative party will win a clear majority, taking 121 seats as against Laurier's Liberals 96 seats, with another four held by independents. One of the new government's first actions is to reverse the decision to refuse to allow Canadian troops to be deployed with the Imperial Army Corps.
September 1907: The US Army forms the Aeronautical Division of the Army Signal Corps to investigate the military use of aircraft. This will be the world's first dedicated military aviation service. The new service will contract with aviation pioneer Glenn Curtiss for a non rigid airship and the Wright Brothers for a heavier than air craft to evaluate.
September 1907: The growing Isan Crisis has deeply concerned both the US and Japanese governments. With an Anglo-French war now appearing a possibility, Japanese Ambassador to US Aoki Shūzū and US Secretary of State Elihu Root hold urgent discussions in Washington regarding the crisis. The talks result in a joint call from Japanese Prime Minister Saionji Kinmochi and US President Theodore Roosevelt for talks to resolve the situation. While the British immediately agree, French Prime Minister Gabriel Hantaux refuses, believing the Canadian refusal to allow their troops to be deployed gives them a decisive upper hand. However Emperor Napoleon IV intervenes, openly expressing his support for such talks, forcing Hantaux to agrees to talks in Oslo mediated by Norwegian King Haakon VII.
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Why do I feel that the former Canadian PM shot his foot off with his actions as well as probably pissed off his support base as well given his actions neutered him and pissed off a lot of people as well as his backers.
Adding to this the French PM has committed a major relations blunder with Britain and her empire. Given he has just made himself highly unpopular with the current ministry as well as pretty much started to burn any developing bridges. He couldn’t have handed the Kaiser
a better weapon even if he tried.
Also looks like the South American Arms race is heating up though in all honesty they don't have the dock capability currently to maintain ships much bigger than a light Cruiser maybe a heavy cruiser if they stretch in a lot of nations. Like I could see the South American powers asking a British or American company to help set up capabilites in their nation's. Like I can see Chilie going to the UK for it.
Adding to this the French PM has committed a major relations blunder with Britain and her empire. Given he has just made himself highly unpopular with the current ministry as well as pretty much started to burn any developing bridges. He couldn’t have handed the Kaiser
a better weapon even if he tried.
Also looks like the South American Arms race is heating up though in all honesty they don't have the dock capability currently to maintain ships much bigger than a light Cruiser maybe a heavy cruiser if they stretch in a lot of nations. Like I could see the South American powers asking a British or American company to help set up capabilites in their nation's. Like I can see Chilie going to the UK for it.
problem is the French speaking part of Canada truly thinks France actually cares that much about them
The turret redesign was long overdue. On the improved flash protection: the Battle Cruiser force in WW1 had a tendency to ignore safety procedures, in order to increase rate of fire, and to carry more ammunition than was safely provided for. Tiger was the outlier - her skipper, Pelly, aware that he had a crew of jail sweepings, made sure that procedures were more rigidly followed. This probably save her at Jutland.
That's what I was thinking - how much of an influence was Quebecois Francophile sentiment on decision making?
Actually Quebec did not feel any particular loyalty to France as the general feeling prior to WW1 was that France abandoned them to the English. There was a quote which I can't find anymore related to a French official trying to drum up support during the war to which a Quebec official replied something to the effect of "Why should we care for you when you did not care for us".
which I figured but I'm more speaking in terms of ttl is the feeling I'm getting
The Emperor's intervention will have a truly profound impact on French politics and most definitely will not go down well with the current French government. Until this point he has operated very much in the "British" mode, advising his concerns in private but publicly completely supporting the elected government. and ostensibly remaining politically neutral. However by openly going against the government line, he has just set a huge precedent shifting the Third French Empire toward the European monarchical model where the Monarch actively participates in politics. Will be very interesting to see where this leads.
French Prime Minister Hantaux has made the worst miscalculation and biggest diplomatic blunder of any leader in the lead up to TTL's Great War, In 1906 the British were ready to jump, abandon their 'splendid isolation' policy in Europe and commit to an alliance with France against Germany. But he just flushed that right down the crapper, guaranteeing the Empire will at least initially remain neutral in the onrushing Great War, all for a few minor border provinces in Siam. Despite the apparently positive outcome of the crisis, it is in reality nothing short of a total disaster for France. The only shred of good in the whole situation for them is while Hantaux may have slammed the door to an alliance with the Empire shut, the Emperor's intervention has left the door unlocked at least.
The next Imperial Conference will be dominated by the overwhelming desire to prevent this situation ever occurring again. It's hard to overstate how serious the constitutional crisis Canadian obstructionism created was. Firstly it very publicly exposed the massive flaw in the ad hoc and undirected way the current Imperial Federation. All it took was one member to dig their toes in and the whole thing ground to a halt. Secondly much of the Empire's power on the international stage comes from the perception of unwavering Imperial unity. The Canadians just told the entire world Imperial unity is far from unwavering, nearly triggering a war with a Great Power in the process. With the Great War now right around the corner, the damage this has caused will be immense and is going to take a lot of fixing.
Oddly this crisis was inevitable. Sooner or later one of the Dominions would have broken ranks and the huge instability of the current constitutional framework laid bare. And it was always almost certainly going to be Canada, the most independent of the Dominions and only one with a substantial anti Imperial minority which was going to do it. How this is ultimately resolved will fundamentally change the Empire.
Laurier was brought down by a combination of two things. Most obviously, he overplayed his hand underestimating the depth of pro Imperial sentiment in the vital province of Quebec. If he hadn't so directly challenged the concept of Empire pulling Canadian troops he likely would have survived. Less obvious and probably more importantly he was hobbled by the US refusal to budge on free trade. His policies of closer ties with the US had a great deal of support in Canada, but his continual failure to deliver was always going to doom him long term. The more the US refused to listen to Canadian concerns, the stronger pro Imperial sentiment in Canada became.
This is a rather complex and multifaceted issue. Yes the Quebecois ITTL have no greater love of France than the Quebecois of the OTL. But likewise they have no great love of the Empire either and were Laurier's firmest support base. In this respect, the French believing Quebecois influence in Canada was stronger than it actually was, did play a factor. However there was another factor at play. While the reality is the Quebecois have no strong pro French sentiment, there are not an insignificant number in the French political establishment who believe they do. This attitude is particularly strong in the boulangist faction in France, who's version of French nationalism holds the rest of the Francophone world should naturally fall in behind France. With the boulangists playing an important role in the Hantaux government, this was also a factor in French decision making (they hold three cabinet positions of eleven: Minister of the Interior, Minister of Justice and Minister of the Colonies, ranked second, fifth and ninth in importance respectively).
While the South American Dreadnought Race will be broadly similar to the OTL, there are some noticeable differences. Firstly all three of the ABC powers are in somewhat better economic shape, ranging from Brazil being furthest from its OTL economy to Argentina being closest. Then you have that while Argentina is roughly at the same point as the OTL when it comes to political stability, both Brazil and Chile are in a better position, though in this case Chile is best off. There's also that the Brazilian Navy has roughly the same level of prestige within the nation and professionalism ITTL as the Chileans. And finally the rivalry between Argentina and Chile is stronger ITTL, with a significantly higher chance it could lead to a shooting war.
That's probably what really hurt him especially given the very protectionist stance the USA took against imperial interests. I think though the Fishing dispute could have brought down his goverment in time.
Here Fisher's decision to spend several days getting the fleet to blast large numbers of obsolete warships (31 actually) and see what happened will have a major influence on this. These changes are a direct result of the 'Battle of the Kentish Coast' and one the sets of tests carried out was to deliberately detonate large calibre shells inside turrets with the flash protection in different states to see how likely a shell penetrating the turret was to flash down to the magazine. The results where a wakeup call.
BTW, this is the make up of Hantaux Cabinet ranked in order of importance and giving their position on confronting the Empire
Gabriel Hantau - Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs = Pro confrontation
Paul Déroulède - Minister of the Interior (boulangist) = Anti confrontation
Gaston Alexandre Auguste, Marquis de Galliffet - Minister of War = Pro confrontation
Raymond Poincaré - Minister of Finance = Anti confrontation
Édouard Drumont - Minister of Justice (boulangist) = Pro confrontation
Jacques Piou - Minister for the Navy = Pro confrontation
Louis Barthou - Minister of Education = Pro confrontation
Théophile Delcassé - Minister of Commerce = Pro confrontation
Maurice Barrès - Minister of Colonies (boulangist) = Pro confrontation
Étienne Clémentel - Minister of Agriculture = Anti confrontation
Charles Dumont - Minister of Transport = Anti confrontation
Gabriel Hantau - Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs = Pro confrontation
Paul Déroulède - Minister of the Interior (boulangist) = Anti confrontation
Gaston Alexandre Auguste, Marquis de Galliffet - Minister of War = Pro confrontation
Raymond Poincaré - Minister of Finance = Anti confrontation
Édouard Drumont - Minister of Justice (boulangist) = Pro confrontation
Jacques Piou - Minister for the Navy = Pro confrontation
Louis Barthou - Minister of Education = Pro confrontation
Théophile Delcassé - Minister of Commerce = Pro confrontation
Maurice Barrès - Minister of Colonies (boulangist) = Pro confrontation
Étienne Clémentel - Minister of Agriculture = Anti confrontation
Charles Dumont - Minister of Transport = Anti confrontation