WI: LBJ Duck Hooks Vietnam excluding the nuclear weapons and invades Ho Chi Minh Trail in 1964-65

For context (got from Wikipedia) operation duck hook was a plan the nixon administration had thought of to end Vietnam which involved possible-nuclear bombing of military and economic targets in and around Hanoi, the mining of Haiphong harbor and other ports, saturation bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, the bombing of dikes to destroy the food supply of much of the population of North Vietnam, air strikes against North Vietnam's northeast line of communications as well as passes and bridges at the Chinese border, and air and ground attacks on other targets throughout Vietnam. Let’s say LBJ does operation duck hook excluding the nuclear bombing and invades/cut off the Ho Chi Minh trail in the beginning of the war, how does the war and US political landscape change? Would it force North Vietnam to the peace table faster?
 
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For context (got from Wikipedia) operation duck hook was a plan the nixon administration had thought of to end Vietnam which involved possible-nuclear bombing of military and economic targets in and around Hanoi, the mining of Haiphong harbor and other ports, saturation bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, the bombing of dikes to destroy the food supply of much of the population of North Vietnam, air strikes against North Vietnam's northeast line of communications as well as passes and bridges at the Chinese border, and air and ground attacks on other targets throughout Vietnam. Let’s say LBJ does operation duck hook excluding the nuclear bombing and invades/cut off the Ho Chi Minh trail in the beginning of the war, how does the war change? Would it force North Vietnam to the peace table faster?
The most important factor would be cutting the Ho Chi Minh Trail. It was the Communist lifeline, that sustained their whole war effort. Without it the insurgency in the South would wither, and die, and Cambodia would be saved from the Killing Fields. Mining Haiphong makes perfect sense. Bombing near the Chinese border would be an unwise risk. Destroying the Dikes in the North would be a war crime. Civilian deaths, from flooding, famine, and disease would be horrendous, and totally unjustified.
 
In 1964/5 the NFL and PLAF’s primary military supply was the ARVN. Other material was a combination of NFL taxation and the RVN. While limited light infantry the VWPs manoeuvre forces were primarily PLAF.
 
Also before 1968 the VWP (southern cadre) and some elements of the NFL had a concerted shared line which IDGAF regarding the VWP in the north. You know like when the VWP(s) independently started a revolutionary civil war in 1959 against the VWP(n)’s line?

yeah. So you can’t terrorise the DRVN through war crimes into stopping the NFL.
 

marathag

Banned
In 1964/5 the NFL and PLAF’s primary military supply was the ARVN. Other material was a combination of NFL taxation and the RVN. While limited light infantry the VWPs manoeuvre forces were primarily PLAF.
Q: why bother with the huge effort to expand the bicycle paths to actual highways with motorized traffic?
A: to move supplies South that were coming into Haiphong
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Why wasn't any effort made to blockade the North?
Almost intierly because of a crippling fear of a Chinese intervention, despite the fact that there own studies showed china and North vetnam couldn't put more then 20 divisions on the dmz do to how bad north Vietnams infrastructure was so a korean like staile make from the sea to tiland probably would have been a lot esey and much more in the us armys ball park then what we actually ended up doing.

Not that I think china would have interven on anything less the a us invasion of North vetnam, but thats what lbj and crew thought throughout the war.
 
Why wasn't any effort made to blockade the North?

That was indirectly tried by selective bombing of Haiphong harbor & the transportation routes leading away. The damage was not as great as the Air Force estimates, and the Vietnamese swiftly executed workarounds. The late efforts at this by mining the harbor had better results.
 
If it were to happen would it force north Vietnam to the peace table before 66?

On the contrary, stuff like that tends to harden a country’s resolve.

The threat might induce them to a negotiation & cessation of support for the southern insurgency. Actually breaking the flood control system would piss the Vietnamese off at the same scale as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor angered the US citizenry. Its like a ex cop told me, a night stick is a lot more effective as a threat. Given the overconfidence of the USAF leaders in 1964 a air attack on the Red River delta flood control system might be ineffective as well and making the Vietnamese rabid opposition.
 
That was indirectly tried by selective bombing of Haiphong harbor & the transportation routes leading away.
What was the North's ASW like?

My first thought for blockade would be either a visible one with ships, or announcing unrestricted submarine warfare and posting attack subs outside the harbors.
 
For context (got from Wikipedia) operation duck hook was a plan the nixon administration had thought of to end Vietnam which involved possible-nuclear bombing of military and economic targets in and around Hanoi, the mining of Haiphong harbor and other ports, saturation bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, the bombing of dikes to destroy the food supply of much of the population of North Vietnam, air strikes against North Vietnam's northeast line of communications as well as passes and bridges at the Chinese border, and air and ground attacks on other targets throughout Vietnam. Let’s say LBJ does operation duck hook excluding the nuclear bombing and invades/cut off the Ho Chi Minh trail in the beginning of the war, how does the war and US political landscape change? Would it force North Vietnam to the peace table faster?

1964-5 was not 1969, and LBJ was not Nixon. Nixon's threats (which, let's remember, even he never carried out in the face of opposition from the State and Defense Departments) were in the context of years of gradual escalation having failed (politically at least) and trying to salvage something by forcing Hanoi to bargain. In particular, in 1964-5 talk about nuclear weapons would be seen by the administration as Goldwaterite, reckless, allienating world opinion and especially US allies in Europe. Moreover, LBJ's fear that too drastic action could bring the Chinese in, so criticized for decades as unwarranted timidity, was actually justified:

"One common misperception has to do with Lyndon Johnson's handling of the war in the 1960s. Critics say that Johnson allowed his fear of China to impede his handling of the war. When he escalated the war in Vietnam, he gradually expanded the bombing from south to north as he was afraid of incurring China's wrath. Like the Chinese side, Johnson remembered the Korean War and wanted to avoid another confrontation. He remembered that during the Korean War, the U.S. had failed to heed Chinese warnings after MacArthur crossed the 38th parallel, thus triggering a clash with China.

"This time, Johnson and his advisers paid close attention to the Chinese role. They were afraid that if the United States pushed too hard or attacked North Vietnam without restraint, they would have a replay of the Korean War. Johnson's critics later said that China was just bluffing, that the Chinese weren't serious about intervening. Harry Summers and other military writers criticized Johnson for allowing his fear of Chinese intervention to undermine his bombing campaign.

"However, the new evidence from China suggests that Mao was seriously prepared to intervene. There was a secret agreement between Hanoi and Beijing that if the Americans launched a ground invasion of North Vietnam (at that time, the United States had restricted itself to a bombing campaign), China would send ground troops into North Vietnam and would not allow the United States to defeat Hanoi. If the Americans bombed North Vietnam, China would match the American military action by taking measures to protect North Vietnamese cities and to rebuild roads and bridges. They would also send anti-aircraft artillery units and army engineers to support North Vietnamese troops and help them deal with the air bombing pressure.

"Meanwhile back in China, Mao was making preparations in anticipation of war with the United States. He relocated industries, universities, and research institutions in the coastal areas of eastern China to the mountainous areas of southwest China. He ordered his people to build anti-air shelters throughout China.

"Mao himself had staked a lot on the outcome of the Vietnamese War in terms of security as well as ideology. Mao took the American escalation seriously; he interpreted it as a security threat. But he also believed that the success of North Vietnam had ideological significance. At that time Mao was criticizing the Soviet Union for not giving enough support to national liberation movements, for pursuing détente with the United States. Thus he hoped to use the Vietnam War as a way to embarrass Khrushchev -- to show him that China had closely befriended anti-imperialist movements of the Third World.

"For all these reasons, Mao was really interested in Vietnam and prepared to intervene. This means that critics of Johnson were wrong. The historical record shows that Johnson was prudent in his approach to the Vietnam War -- that he was right not to adopt more drastic measures. If the suggestions made by these critics had been adopted by Johnson, there would have been a real danger of war between the United States and China."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/articl...ntially-to-vietnam-war-victory-claims-scholar
 

marathag

Banned
If the suggestions made by these critics had been adopted by Johnson, there would have been a real danger of war between the United States and China."
The best time, really for that kind of drastic step, given the Sino-Soviet split and Cultural Revolution about to get rolling.
 
1964-5 was not 1969, and LBJ was not Nixon. Nixon's threats (which, let's remember, even he never carried out in the face of opposition from the State and Defense Departments) were in the context of years of gradual escalation having failed (politically at least) and trying to salvage something by forcing Hanoi to bargain. In particular, in 1964-5 talk about nuclear weapons would be seen by the administration as Goldwaterite, reckless, allienating world opinion and especially US allies in Europe. Moreover, LBJ's fear that too drastic action could bring the Chinese in, so criticized for decades as unwarranted timidity, was actually justified:

"One common misperception has to do with Lyndon Johnson's handling of the war in the 1960s. Critics say that Johnson allowed his fear of China to impede his handling of the war. When he escalated the war in Vietnam, he gradually expanded the bombing from south to north as he was afraid of incurring China's wrath. Like the Chinese side, Johnson remembered the Korean War and wanted to avoid another confrontation. He remembered that during the Korean War, the U.S. had failed to heed Chinese warnings after MacArthur crossed the 38th parallel, thus triggering a clash with China.

"This time, Johnson and his advisers paid close attention to the Chinese role. They were afraid that if the United States pushed too hard or attacked North Vietnam without restraint, they would have a replay of the Korean War. Johnson's critics later said that China was just bluffing, that the Chinese weren't serious about intervening. Harry Summers and other military writers criticized Johnson for allowing his fear of Chinese intervention to undermine his bombing campaign.

"However, the new evidence from China suggests that Mao was seriously prepared to intervene. There was a secret agreement between Hanoi and Beijing that if the Americans launched a ground invasion of North Vietnam (at that time, the United States had restricted itself to a bombing campaign), China would send ground troops into North Vietnam and would not allow the United States to defeat Hanoi. If the Americans bombed North Vietnam, China would match the American military action by taking measures to protect North Vietnamese cities and to rebuild roads and bridges. They would also send anti-aircraft artillery units and army engineers to support North Vietnamese troops and help them deal with the air bombing pressure.

"Meanwhile back in China, Mao was making preparations in anticipation of war with the United States. He relocated industries, universities, and research institutions in the coastal areas of eastern China to the mountainous areas of southwest China. He ordered his people to build anti-air shelters throughout China.

"Mao himself had staked a lot on the outcome of the Vietnamese War in terms of security as well as ideology. Mao took the American escalation seriously; he interpreted it as a security threat. But he also believed that the success of North Vietnam had ideological significance. At that time Mao was criticizing the Soviet Union for not giving enough support to national liberation movements, for pursuing détente with the United States. Thus he hoped to use the Vietnam War as a way to embarrass Khrushchev -- to show him that China had closely befriended anti-imperialist movements of the Third World.

"For all these reasons, Mao was really interested in Vietnam and prepared to intervene. This means that critics of Johnson were wrong. The historical record shows that Johnson was prudent in his approach to the Vietnam War -- that he was right not to adopt more drastic measures. If the suggestions made by these critics had been adopted by Johnson, there would have been a real danger of war between the United States and China."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/articl...ntially-to-vietnam-war-victory-claims-scholar
I get all of that but the post is asking what would happen if LBJ did it
 
For all the what if Johnson engaged in a World War 2/Korea style bombing campaign in Vietnam it always runs into the basic issue that he decided in terms of public messaging it would be a police action conflict 'not another Korea' as he would say. Of course, it was waged on the ground stupidly as a pure conventional war against insurgents instead of a hybrid conflict.

But, for Johnson to go big against North Vietnam even just from the air it would change the entire war and either North Vietnam makes peace or China throw in more directly with ground troops which for domestic reasons in China and North Vietnam might not be nearly so easy as their decision to move divisions into North Korea during that war.
 
What was the North's ASW like?

Zero in 1964. But, so was its anti aircraft capability. Then the USSR moved a entire Regional air defense group to the Red River region and the US suffered severe casualties.
My first thought for blockade would be either a visible one with ships, or announcing unrestricted submarine warfare and posting attack subs outside the harbors.
Bad optics here. Makes the US look like a pack of nazis. & difficult to overcome with propaganda.
 
1964-5 was not 1969, and LBJ was not Nixon. Nixon's threats (which, let's remember, even he never carried out in the face of opposition from the State and Defense Departments) were in the context of years of gradual escalation having failed (politically at least) and trying to salvage something by forcing Hanoi to bargain. In particular, in 1964-5 talk about nuclear weapons would be seen by the administration as Goldwaterite, reckless, allienating world opinion and especially US allies in Europe. Moreover, LBJ's fear that too drastic action could bring the Chinese in, so criticized for decades as unwarranted timidity, was actually justified:

"One common misperception has to do with Lyndon Johnson's handling of the war in the 1960s. Critics say that Johnson allowed his fear of China to impede his handling of the war. When he escalated the war in Vietnam, he gradually expanded the bombing from south to north as he was afraid of incurring China's wrath. Like the Chinese side, Johnson remembered the Korean War and wanted to avoid another confrontation. He remembered that during the Korean War, the U.S. had failed to heed Chinese warnings after MacArthur crossed the 38th parallel, thus triggering a clash with China.

"This time, Johnson and his advisers paid close attention to the Chinese role. They were afraid that if the United States pushed too hard or attacked North Vietnam without restraint, they would have a replay of the Korean War. Johnson's critics later said that China was just bluffing, that the Chinese weren't serious about intervening. Harry Summers and other military writers criticized Johnson for allowing his fear of Chinese intervention to undermine his bombing campaign.

"However, the new evidence from China suggests that Mao was seriously prepared to intervene. There was a secret agreement between Hanoi and Beijing that if the Americans launched a ground invasion of North Vietnam (at that time, the United States had restricted itself to a bombing campaign), China would send ground troops into North Vietnam and would not allow the United States to defeat Hanoi. If the Americans bombed North Vietnam, China would match the American military action by taking measures to protect North Vietnamese cities and to rebuild roads and bridges. They would also send anti-aircraft artillery units and army engineers to support North Vietnamese troops and help them deal with the air bombing pressure.

"Meanwhile back in China, Mao was making preparations in anticipation of war with the United States. He relocated industries, universities, and research institutions in the coastal areas of eastern China to the mountainous areas of southwest China. He ordered his people to build anti-air shelters throughout China.

"Mao himself had staked a lot on the outcome of the Vietnamese War in terms of security as well as ideology. Mao took the American escalation seriously; he interpreted it as a security threat. But he also believed that the success of North Vietnam had ideological significance. At that time Mao was criticizing the Soviet Union for not giving enough support to national liberation movements, for pursuing détente with the United States. Thus he hoped to use the Vietnam War as a way to embarrass Khrushchev -- to show him that China had closely befriended anti-imperialist movements of the Third World.

"For all these reasons, Mao was really interested in Vietnam and prepared to intervene. This means that critics of Johnson were wrong. The historical record shows that Johnson was prudent in his approach to the Vietnam War -- that he was right not to adopt more drastic measures. If the suggestions made by these critics had been adopted by Johnson, there would have been a real danger of war between the United States and China."

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/articl...ntially-to-vietnam-war-victory-claims-scholar
The key point being "invasion of North vetnam" also mao tried desperately to get the us to back off and only intervend in Korea when us forces were almost right up along the yalu. So no it doesn't look like china would have intervend (more then they already did, chinese volunteers did a lot of work in North vetnam) if Johnson had bombed North vetnam chinese railroads, mined North vetnam harbors and invaded southern laos. After all non of those threateneds North vetnams exciestanse yet dramatically improves South vetnams ability to fight off North vetnam garilas. Besides North vetnam is a useful buffer state, vetnam ended up fighting a war agenst China less then a decade later and has ended up being a (minor) enemy of bejings by today.
 
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