WI: LBJ Duck Hooks Vietnam excluding the nuclear weapons and invades Ho Chi Minh Trail in 1964-65

marathag

Banned
Yeah. It’ll nicely seal the split and give the Soviets back their most powerful ally.
Even with the mJor US action against North Vietnam, a Soviet, not Chinese client, would you really see Mao/ Gang of Four begging forgiveness to Brezhnev to return to their subservient role of the '50s to act as a united front?
I don't think so.
 
Even with the major US action against North Vietnam, a Soviet, not Chinese client, would you really see Mao/ Gang of Four begging forgiveness to Brezhnev to return to their subservient role of the '50s to act as a united front?
I don't think so.
Yes. In the mid-1960s, North Vietnam was just as much a Chinese client as it was a Soviet one (Chinese-Vietnamese relations in 1940s-1970s was an unusually good one by historical standards, with a split only developping in the mid-70s), hence China's willingness to fight to defend it. With China now committed to defend North Vietnam against US aggression and American soldiers now killing (and being killed) by American personnel, the Chinese suddenly have an interest in acquiring more Soviet weaponry and the Soviets have an interest in the Chinese acquiring those weapons. If what amounted the same Chinese leadership were ultimately willing to do it in Korea, I see no reason why they wouldn't be willing for Vietnam.

The only reason I can see for you to not think so is because it's inconvenient for your fantasies.
 

marathag

Banned
Chinese aid was a fraction of the Soviet. The Chinese taking a 'tax' on aid shipped by rail was noted by the North.
 
Yes. In the mid-1960s, North Vietnam was just as much a Chinese client as it was a Soviet one (Chinese-Vietnamese relations in 1940s-1970s was an unusually good one by historical standards, with a split only developping in the mid-70s), hence China's willingness to fight to defend it. With China now committed to defend North Vietnam against US aggression and American soldiers now killing (and being killed) by American personnel, the Chinese suddenly have an interest in acquiring more Soviet weaponry and the Soviets have an interest in the Chinese acquiring those weapons. If what amounted the same Chinese leadership were ultimately willing to do it in Korea, I see no reason why they wouldn't be willing for Vietnam.

The only reason I can see for you to not think so is because it's inconvenient for your fantasies.
Well for one north vetnam and China never had a very good relationship, ho chi min when he was in charge nerly caused a rupture with China when he supported the ussr on the border issue with China (before the sino-sovite split even happened mind you) , only reluctantly supported chia grabbing the parcels (and emidiatly changed there stances the moment the south was conquered) and the simple fact that it took less the 5 years after the war before these countries whent to war shows the dislike runs deep.

Will I agree that if the us had invaded north vetnam China would get involved but it would only be for the same reson it did for north Korea, to keep the us away from its borders, anything less then that (like invading southern laos, mining the harbors, and bombing the railroads) would not cause the chines to get involved (gust like how if the us had stopped at any point between the 38 parallel and the yalu, China would not have intervend) simply put north vetnam is a useful buffer state that has no choice but to be a chines puppet, vetnam is a pain in the side and a active enemy. As is mao only supported north vetnam basted ideology, and even then a lot more support was form the ussr anyway.
 
Chinese aid was a fraction of the Soviet.
In reality, Chinese aide outstripped Soviet aide until 1965, being estimated at 3/4ths total foreign military aide to North Vietnam between 1950 and 1970. But good job revealing you don't actually know anything about the subject.

Well for one north vetnam and China never had a very good relationship
In reality, it actually started out with an exceptionally excellent relationship. The Vietminhs campaign against the French in the early-1950s was virtually bankrolled by the PRC, with most of the guns used to shell Dien Bien Phu were overwhelmingly pieces that had been either manufactured by the PRC or had been captured from the Nationalists by the PRC. Chinese military advisors trained much of the Vietminh's personnel throughout the 1950s and the bulk of economic aid recieved by North Vietnam originated from China over that decade.

It wasn't until the Sino-Soviet Split began to fester and spread out into the wider Communist World in the late-60s that Sino-Vietnamese relations began to sour again and take on their historical norm. But here, that split has been pre-empted by American action.
 
For context (got from Wikipedia) operation duck hook was a plan the nixon administration had thought of to end Vietnam which involved possible-nuclear bombing of military and economic targets in and around Hanoi, the mining of Haiphong harbor and other ports, saturation bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong, the bombing of dikes to destroy the food supply of much of the population of North Vietnam, air strikes against North Vietnam's northeast line of communications as well as passes and bridges at the Chinese border, and air and ground attacks on other targets throughout Vietnam. Let’s say LBJ does operation duck hook excluding the nuclear bombing and invades/cut off the Ho Chi Minh trail in the beginning of the war, how does the war and US political landscape change? Would it force North Vietnam to the peace table faster?
Diem needs to stay, so he can now order the ARVN to go invade North Vietnam he ordered the Army to prepare for it, now knowing that the US would do that, its plausible if Diem stays he coordniates with the US and Start an invasion to unite the country with full fledged us support
 
In reality, Chinese aide outstripped Soviet aide until 1965, being estimated at 3/4ths total foreign military aide to North Vietnam between 1950 and 1970. But good job revealing you don't actually know anything about the subject.


In reality, it actually started out with an exceptionally excellent relationship. The Vietminhs campaign against the French in the early-1950s was virtually bankrolled by the PRC, with most of the guns used to shell Dien Bien Phu were overwhelmingly pieces that had been either manufactured by the PRC or had been captured from the Nationalists by the PRC. Chinese military advisors trained much of the Vietminh's personnel throughout the 1950s and the bulk of economic aid recieved by North Vietnam originated from China over that decade.

It wasn't until the Sino-Soviet Split began to fester and spread out into the wider Communist World in the late-60s that Sino-Vietnamese relations began to sour again and take on their historical norm. But here, that split has been pre-empted by American action.
Have any sources on that? Also shows your the one that's dosnt really know anything if you think that sino-vetnam relationship was good during that time, for example most of the guns used in Dien Bien Phu were captured Japanese peaces and Chinese advisors were only involved after the war was over.
 
Have any sources on that?
Also shows your the one that's dosnt really know anything if you think that sino-vetnam relationship was good during that time, for example most of the guns used in Dien Bien Phu were captured Japanese peaces
"In comparison, altogether the Viet Minh had moved up to 50,000 regular troops into the hills surrounding the French-held valley, totalling five divisions, including the 351st Heavy Division, which was an artillery formation equipped with medium artillery, such as the US M101 105mm howitzer, supplied by the neighbouring People's Republic of China (PRC) from captured stocks obtained from defeated Nationalist China as well as US forces in Korea, together with some heavier field-guns as well as anti-aircraft artillery." -Battle of Dien Bien Phu
and Chinese advisors were only involved after the war was over.
"In addition, a 'political advisory group' was also sent from China to northern Vietnam in 1950, led by Luo Guibo. Luo went to Tonkin to “pass on China’s experience in financial and economic work, the rectification of cadres’ ideology and working style, government work and mobilization of the masses.” Between 1951 to 1954, the Chinese helped the Vietnamese in training their military commanders; reorganizing their defense and financial systems. They also helped the Vietnamese to mobilize the peasants to support the war through land reform campaigns. Overall, there was a massive transfer of the Chinese experience of making a revolution to the Vietnamese." - From the China in the Vietnam War article linked above.

Oh, would you look at that: actual sources say your claims are total bullshit.
 
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possible-nuclear bombing of military and economic targets in and around Hanoi,
Not feasible due to potential international condemnation against bombing densely-populated targets. Economic targets are often close to population centers. About military targets, most North Vietnamese military targets were either mobile such as their Anti-Aircraft defense and RADAR systems, or easily to construct such as secret dirt/concrete airfield.
In addition, you have just opened the Pandora Box that is the use of a nuclear weapon. Now there is a precedent that it is now acceptable to casually drop a few sunshine in a proxy war. This is not only terrible for the people who lived in these conflicts, but also cause most countries to even more aggressively pursue nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Imagine nuclear-capable Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt in the 80s.
the mining of Haiphong harbor and other ports,
This was already implemented by OTL. Most Soviet aids were disrupted due to the mining of North Vietnamese water, but aid still flowed into North Vietnam through the Chinese-Vietnamese border.
saturation bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong,
the bombing of dikes to destroy the food supply of much of the population of North Vietnam,
Causing intentional destruction to civilian centers is not very productive to propaganda, but you have just secured the loyalty of the North Vietnamese people for Hanoi, not that they never lacked it anyways. This would definitely hinder the ability to supply NLF forces tho, since you just destroy their logistics hub with nuclear fire.
air strikes against North Vietnam's northeast line of communications as well as passes and bridges at the Chinese border, and air and ground attacks on other targets throughout Vietnam.
Communications during the 1960s were very easy to fix when it was just a few telephone/telegraph lines. During the war, the North Vietnamese repair team could just repair the communication lines faster than the US could destroy it.

Conclusion: These policies are either ineffective or effective at the cost of American international reputation. So it might bring the war end faster, as either anti-war movement pressure require you to limit further American involvement or scares the North Vietnamese government so much with mushroom cloud they agreed to left South Vietnam alone.
Or the timelines stays nearly the same as OTL. Who knows?
 
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