One thing for sure, I don’t see any way for any form of socialism or social democracy to really take hold ITTL. It’s gonna probably be looked at the same way we look at Nazism.
America Be Watching With The Popcorn Redux- The Search For A Higher Reaction Score
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This sentiment really confuses me. The Labour Party lasted the whole Cold War without the public at large believing they were Soviet sympathisers and I don't think that would change with the war. We have seen the result of the 1982 election, Crosland comfortably falls into social democrat IMO.
Both of you are partially correct- the far-left is discredited by the war in the same way Nazism was discredited by World War II- sure, outright fascism was frowned upon, but the right wing in general survived.
Here it would be mostly the same- nobody in their right mind would identify as a Communist in the west, and certainly not as a hardline Stalinist (we're talking about breaking-the-lizardman-constant levels of unpopularity here), but DemSocs and certainly SocDems will live to see another day.
That said, people who now identify as the above but previously identified as actual Communists are very much fucked- for instance, Berlinguer renames the PCI to the PSD (Partido Socialista Democratico) but still doesn't gain anywhere near as much traction as he did OTL (although that also makes him less of a threat, and he lives another decade).
Regardless, plenty of left-wing parties are doing the purging of extreme elements themselves, as Labour ended up doing before Crosland brought them back into Number 10.
I'm curious about Finland- ITOL in 1970 they had an election which the right initially appeared to win, but they were not allowed by President Kekkonen to form a government because they weren't pro-Soviet enough.
Yep. The National Coalition wins 65 seats, forcing Kekkonen's hand. The President himself loses re-election in 1974.
I can't see who could win against Kekkonen in 1974, to be honest. Kekkonen deciding to retire himself at that point is the one realistic chance to avoid another term for him, IMO.
The Finns had been allowed to survive because Stalin respected Mannerhiem, even though he disliked him personally
The USSR is now a global pariah, and Kekkonen's foot-dragging in condemning the whole nuclear war thing didn't sit well with many Finnish voters. Fagerholm narrowly defeats him.
Related funny note: this and the OTL memes about Xi looking like Winnie the Pooh are even better when you know the name of the guy who voices Pooh for the Disney-produced content.
Jim Cummings
ANNOUNCEMENT:
Getting ready to apply to college has been really tiring, especially when coupled with studying for the SAT, ACT, and 5 different AP exams. That being said, I've been working on an update and it will be released some time this weekend or on Monday.
Obviously, if anyone has any questions about certain events (or suggestions for what I should cover next) I'm definitely all ears. And, of course, thank you for all the support you've shown towards this TL- it matters a lot to me.
Getting ready to apply to college has been really tiring, especially when coupled with studying for the SAT, ACT, and 5 different AP exams. That being said, I've been working on an update and it will be released some time this weekend or on Monday.
Obviously, if anyone has any questions about certain events (or suggestions for what I should cover next) I'm definitely all ears. And, of course, thank you for all the support you've shown towards this TL- it matters a lot to me.
The Special Relationship
The State of Israel had emerged from the 1971 conflict as the victor, just as they had four years earlier. The initial peace objectively been more productive than the first one- Egypt and Syria now recognized the world's sole Jewish state as a country, after all- but there was quite a lot of simmering discontent behind the scenes. The administration of Prime Minister Menachem Begin was widely seen as unpopular, and beholden to the interests of religious extremists. [1]
By the time his government collapsed in 1983, it was a forgone conclusion that Alignment would sweep back into power, the only question was with who. While many anticipated that the left-religious coalition that had played an important role in the early years of the nation could make a return, Shinui leader Amnon Rubenstein would deliver an unforgettable speech just days before the election that put an end to such speculation.
From This Is War: How Secular Israel Emerged Victorious
By Lior Schleien (2028)
"During this campaign, much has been said about what it means to be Israeli. Multiple definitions have been bandied about, but the one embraced by much of the right, particularly the religious right, is the following: you have to be a religious Jew. You have to hate your neighbors. You have to believe in constant violence for the sake of defense. They think that there are two Israels, polarized along these two issues.
In a sense, they are exactly right. There are indeed two Israels. Only these two nations are organized on the axis of those who believe that this country should be a nation for all of its citizens, and those who do not. Israel is a Jewish state, yes. But there are dozens of ethnic and cultural groups that live here, and all are effected by the same problems. It doesn't matter if you are Ashkenazi or Sephardi or Arab when the bus doesn't come on time. It doesn't matter if you speak Arabic or Hebrew when you can't get medical treatment.
And it most certainly doesn't matter who you are when this country is attacked."
When the results came in, it was clear the left had one. Haim Yavin, who was covering the election for the flagship Channel 1, even exclaimed that the results were "a revolution" [2]. The governing Likud had been reduced to a mere 25 seats, while the extreme peace camp (made up of the liberal socialist Ratz and the left-wing big tent Progressive List for Peace) got almost as many.
Results of the 1983 Israeli Knesset Election. Parties Arranged from Good-Bad on Left-Right Axis.
Government formation was generally pretty easy. There was some conflict between the more traditionally left wing Alignment and the more progressive parties but in the end it was clear that their differences paled in comparison to the differences with the right. In the end, the Second Rabin Government was formed between Alignment, Ratz, and Shinui, with both the PLFP and Yahad providing confidence.
Upon taking office, one of the first acts of the new government would be to formally sign an alliance agreement with Iran, which would later form the nucleus of METO. Rabin would also set about repairing relations with Israel's neighbors, framing it as a national security issue. This would itself culminate in the Tehran Accords of 1984.
PROVISIONS OF THE TEHRAN ACCORDS:
-Israel will withdraw from Syria, although it will annex the Golan Heights.
-The remaining $1.7 Billion owed to Israel by both Syria and Egypt will be paid within 5 years
-Martial law in the West Bank will end
-The Sinai Peninsula will be returned to Egypt
-Israeli aircraft and ships will have freedom of navigation through all Syrian and Egyptian territorial waters
While the treaty itself was somewhat lopsided, the return of the owed indemnities and the funding freed up from not having to occupy hostile territory allowed for a vast expansion of social programs. On that topic, one of the government's flagship projects was the creation of the Israeli National Wealth Fund, which was a sovereign investment fund based off of the Norwegian model. When combined with solid management (and the Israeli Economic Miracle) the fund would reach a massive $2.4 Trillion by 2023. [3]
The Knesset would, after much hemming and hawing, ratify the treaty by a narrow margin, and it would go into effect soon after. This was extremely infuriating to the right, for obvious reasons. To celebrate, Rabin would go on a walk with his family in the neighborhood around the Prime Minister's residence. It was here where a far-right extremist would take a shot, which would catch the Israeli PM just inches from the heart. While doctors worked overtime to save his life, he would eventually succumb to his injuries on April 15, 1985. He would be succeeded by Deputy Prime Minister Amnon Rubenstein.
Poor guy can't catch a break.
Still, Rabin's assassination at the hands of a religious extremist would produce a significant societal backlash, which secured Rubenstein's government for the time being, despite him not even being the largest party in his own coalition. Still, the government was pretty unstable long-term so the Prime Minister called a snap election just three months after the assassination.
The campaign would once again be marked with controversy, especially as the neofascist Kach party looked like it would make substantial gains. To boost his party even further, Rubenstein would sign an agreement with Ratz to create a joint list, which would be called Hetz (literally "Arrow"). On election night, the list would make substantial gains, easily outpacing Alignment for first place amongst the left-wing bloc.
Government formation would actually be a bit more difficult than two years prior, likely because the party in pole position was a bit more uncompromising ideologically. Still, the party of Rabin had far more in common with Hetz than they did with the right-wing bloc, which now featured an expanded Kach. Ultimately, a coalition agreement between the Progressive List for Peace, Hetz, and Alignment was signed just over two months after the election, securing the premiership of Rubenstein.
Members of the 12th Knesset, In Office from 1985 until 1989
In his victory speech, the Prime Minister would lay out a list of priorities- tackling inflation, the high cost of living, the large percentage of the budget going to ultra-orthodox interests, and securing a just and lasting peace with Israel's neighbors. Upon taking office for a full term, Rubenstein would take action on all of these, beginning with the rampant hyperinflation that had racked the Israeli economy for years [4].
Corporate tax rates were pegged to inflation, with the goal of maximizing revenue while reducing inflation. However, to keep Israel competitive, the government would also establish the Israeli Capital Fund, a subset of the SWF that would invest money in Israeli companies in exchange for shares, the dividends of which would be distributed to Israeli taxpayers. This policy was generally pretty successful, with inflation falling from 300% when the government took office to a mere 15% when the next election was called in 1989.
The high cost of living was countered through the usual left wing methods, although with an added flair of fiscal responsibility. While colleges and universities were made free, the country's various healthcare programs were centralized into a single unified bureaucracy and program. As to the peace process, Rubenstein would begin the process of forming a formal Palestinian government in the West Bank, which would hold its first elections in 1988.
Results of the 1988 Palestinian Presidential Election.
Orange indicates areas that voted for Yasser Arafat, while grey indicates areas occupied by Israel and Egypt.
The elections were supervised by various global watchdogs, who would deem the results to be "mostly free and fair". Arafat would take office as the first President of the State of Palestine on June 1, 1988, for a five year term. Back in Israel, the Prime Minister would begin a charm offensive, particularly in the developing world. Israel would allocate billions of shekels in foreign aid, which would be concentrated in southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Rubenstein would also end the practice of Israeli support for apartheid South Africa, and would vote repeatedly to condemn the country.
All of this would improve Israel's position in the world quite a bit, and on November 16, 1988, the UN General Assembly would vote heavily in favor of repealing Zionism as a form of racism and discrimination. General Assembly Resolution 4686, as it was known, was such a turn of events from a decade prior that a majority of UN members actually cosponsored the resolution, and the vast majority voted for it.
93 voted in favor, 16 abstained, and 12 voted against.
Nobody knew what the future would hold for Israel, the middle east, or the world, but it was clear it was far better than it was 10 years before.
[1] This was objectively true OTL, but it's even more true here. Mizrahigate never happens here, so Begin only barely scrapes by, and has to form a coalition with the usual cast of ultrareligious parties that make up the Israeli right. Tel Aviv patriots aren't fans of that, to say the least.
[2] The same thing he said in 1977 when Begin first swept into power.
[3] Spoilers but with no more war and occupations (and less insane religious parties in government) Israel is going to be a much, much richer nation.
[4] This might sound strange today but from about 1975 until 1990 Israel was a frequent contender for highest inflation in the world.
By the time his government collapsed in 1983, it was a forgone conclusion that Alignment would sweep back into power, the only question was with who. While many anticipated that the left-religious coalition that had played an important role in the early years of the nation could make a return, Shinui leader Amnon Rubenstein would deliver an unforgettable speech just days before the election that put an end to such speculation.
From This Is War: How Secular Israel Emerged Victorious
By Lior Schleien (2028)
"During this campaign, much has been said about what it means to be Israeli. Multiple definitions have been bandied about, but the one embraced by much of the right, particularly the religious right, is the following: you have to be a religious Jew. You have to hate your neighbors. You have to believe in constant violence for the sake of defense. They think that there are two Israels, polarized along these two issues.
In a sense, they are exactly right. There are indeed two Israels. Only these two nations are organized on the axis of those who believe that this country should be a nation for all of its citizens, and those who do not. Israel is a Jewish state, yes. But there are dozens of ethnic and cultural groups that live here, and all are effected by the same problems. It doesn't matter if you are Ashkenazi or Sephardi or Arab when the bus doesn't come on time. It doesn't matter if you speak Arabic or Hebrew when you can't get medical treatment.
And it most certainly doesn't matter who you are when this country is attacked."
When the results came in, it was clear the left had one. Haim Yavin, who was covering the election for the flagship Channel 1, even exclaimed that the results were "a revolution" [2]. The governing Likud had been reduced to a mere 25 seats, while the extreme peace camp (made up of the liberal socialist Ratz and the left-wing big tent Progressive List for Peace) got almost as many.
Government formation was generally pretty easy. There was some conflict between the more traditionally left wing Alignment and the more progressive parties but in the end it was clear that their differences paled in comparison to the differences with the right. In the end, the Second Rabin Government was formed between Alignment, Ratz, and Shinui, with both the PLFP and Yahad providing confidence.
Upon taking office, one of the first acts of the new government would be to formally sign an alliance agreement with Iran, which would later form the nucleus of METO. Rabin would also set about repairing relations with Israel's neighbors, framing it as a national security issue. This would itself culminate in the Tehran Accords of 1984.
PROVISIONS OF THE TEHRAN ACCORDS:
-Israel will withdraw from Syria, although it will annex the Golan Heights.
-The remaining $1.7 Billion owed to Israel by both Syria and Egypt will be paid within 5 years
-Martial law in the West Bank will end
-The Sinai Peninsula will be returned to Egypt
-Israeli aircraft and ships will have freedom of navigation through all Syrian and Egyptian territorial waters
While the treaty itself was somewhat lopsided, the return of the owed indemnities and the funding freed up from not having to occupy hostile territory allowed for a vast expansion of social programs. On that topic, one of the government's flagship projects was the creation of the Israeli National Wealth Fund, which was a sovereign investment fund based off of the Norwegian model. When combined with solid management (and the Israeli Economic Miracle) the fund would reach a massive $2.4 Trillion by 2023. [3]
The Knesset would, after much hemming and hawing, ratify the treaty by a narrow margin, and it would go into effect soon after. This was extremely infuriating to the right, for obvious reasons. To celebrate, Rabin would go on a walk with his family in the neighborhood around the Prime Minister's residence. It was here where a far-right extremist would take a shot, which would catch the Israeli PM just inches from the heart. While doctors worked overtime to save his life, he would eventually succumb to his injuries on April 15, 1985. He would be succeeded by Deputy Prime Minister Amnon Rubenstein.
Poor guy can't catch a break.
The campaign would once again be marked with controversy, especially as the neofascist Kach party looked like it would make substantial gains. To boost his party even further, Rubenstein would sign an agreement with Ratz to create a joint list, which would be called Hetz (literally "Arrow"). On election night, the list would make substantial gains, easily outpacing Alignment for first place amongst the left-wing bloc.
Government formation would actually be a bit more difficult than two years prior, likely because the party in pole position was a bit more uncompromising ideologically. Still, the party of Rabin had far more in common with Hetz than they did with the right-wing bloc, which now featured an expanded Kach. Ultimately, a coalition agreement between the Progressive List for Peace, Hetz, and Alignment was signed just over two months after the election, securing the premiership of Rubenstein.
Members of the 12th Knesset, In Office from 1985 until 1989
Corporate tax rates were pegged to inflation, with the goal of maximizing revenue while reducing inflation. However, to keep Israel competitive, the government would also establish the Israeli Capital Fund, a subset of the SWF that would invest money in Israeli companies in exchange for shares, the dividends of which would be distributed to Israeli taxpayers. This policy was generally pretty successful, with inflation falling from 300% when the government took office to a mere 15% when the next election was called in 1989.
The high cost of living was countered through the usual left wing methods, although with an added flair of fiscal responsibility. While colleges and universities were made free, the country's various healthcare programs were centralized into a single unified bureaucracy and program. As to the peace process, Rubenstein would begin the process of forming a formal Palestinian government in the West Bank, which would hold its first elections in 1988.
Results of the 1988 Palestinian Presidential Election.
Orange indicates areas that voted for Yasser Arafat, while grey indicates areas occupied by Israel and Egypt.
All of this would improve Israel's position in the world quite a bit, and on November 16, 1988, the UN General Assembly would vote heavily in favor of repealing Zionism as a form of racism and discrimination. General Assembly Resolution 4686, as it was known, was such a turn of events from a decade prior that a majority of UN members actually cosponsored the resolution, and the vast majority voted for it.
93 voted in favor, 16 abstained, and 12 voted against.
[1] This was objectively true OTL, but it's even more true here. Mizrahigate never happens here, so Begin only barely scrapes by, and has to form a coalition with the usual cast of ultrareligious parties that make up the Israeli right. Tel Aviv patriots aren't fans of that, to say the least.
[2] The same thing he said in 1977 when Begin first swept into power.
[3] Spoilers but with no more war and occupations (and less insane religious parties in government) Israel is going to be a much, much richer nation.
[4] This might sound strange today but from about 1975 until 1990 Israel was a frequent contender for highest inflation in the world.
It's an interesting dichotomy. On the one hand Palestinians are a bit better off (martial law ended in much of the west bank, an Israeli government that isn't that hostile) but on the other hand plenty of Arab states and the rest of the world are ready to call it a day and declare the situation resolved.
In the end there’s still technically a lot of unresolved issues for Palestinians like right to return and all.
Any Israeli government attempting to do that would be committing political suicide. Let's see if Rubenstein and co get overconfident enough to actually try it.
That being said, I plan to cover Iran next, followed by South America and then South Africa. If anyone has any suggestions (or ideas for guest updates) I'd greatly appreciate them.
I think the Shah's Iran has de facto control of the Caspian Sea. The Shah can reduce his crazy military spending with the USSR out of the game and put the package on social, hoping that it also affects the countryside and not just Tehran.
Afghanistan? Really want to see what's going on there now.