The Day of the Lion: An Italian WW2 TL

[The Red]

Have the Allies do an "Inchon" into la Spezia? (1) I don't know they have the sealift to pull that off. (2) How do they support and relieve that force? (3) They'd need a daring and adaptable top General to run the show.

You can bet there will be those post-war who will argue that the USMC could have pulled it off if they'd been allowed into the ETO

Oh no, I'm never born! My poor grampa for sure ended bombed or heroically died defending Porta Ticinese (he was 22 and had military experience, besides being a socialista...)

It sounds like he definitely would have been in the militias but you never know he may well have survived.

But this mean that the allies at least stop nagging about the italian government not being trustworthy while holding them by the balls and sacrificing what remain of the Italian Army to degrade the German capacity

Realistically the Communists are even more expendable than the Regio Esercito.

Stalin iotl was furious on WAllies for just meeting with Germans in Italy in April 1945 and demanded USSR presence.
I wonder how Stalin sees the non help of Milan ittl.

No doubt Soviet propaganda will make play of it after the war but I doubt Stalin would dwell on it too much at the time with bigger issues at play. Checking the PCI was certainly a factor in the Allied peace negotiations with the Germans IOTL however the fact of these being a separate peace, which might indicate a broader one across the western front, was the main cause for the Soviet protest. The PCI by this point had already committed itself to democracy and systemic change following Togliatti's Salerno Turn and Stalin was keen for them disarm and start winning elections despite the fears of the Allies (and the Swiss.) Indeed ITTL Stalin may well be angrier at the internal PCI for indulging in azionismo and ultimately weaking themselves than he is at the Allies for acting to type by abandoning them.

I highly doubt the Allies are going to push further north than Rimini in 1943 or 1944. With Rome in their hands, the political driver for the Italian campaign is effectively gone. This could free up substantial troops for France, perhaps allowing for a landing in Southern France in Spring '44 (A true "Operation Anvil" or a larger D-Day landing.) Given that the Allies won't be able to practice a large scale opposed amphibious landing with no Salerno in TTL and no need for a landing at Anzio, I wonder if they try to do something other than sit on their hands before D-day. Southern France seems the most likely IMO.

Southern France is a compelling target, especially with the French already established on Corsica and the chaos caused by Alaric in the French Riveria. Nonetheless it's a bit of a strategic dead end on its own. The Allies still have the experience of Torch, Husky and the Pacific island hopping. An earlier D-Day is in the cards however.

An AH hypothetical question (double hypothetical?), is how that level of utter brutality in would affect post-war relations between Italy and Germany, and even to the extent of an altered NATO?

An interesting question, the Germans carried out massacres in Italy IOTL but the extent is certainly greater here with Milan being levelled. Both will still fall under the western sphere of influence however the German invasion, occupation, and the events leading up to it will loom large in post-war Italian politics.

honestly the bulk of his protest is why the allies don't push through north Italy to take pressure away from the URSS because they need it now and not the next year

He could probably be reassured with the notion that the 'proper' second front would be delayed by a bloody stalemate in the Alps.

 

[lukedalton]

Realistically the Communists are even more expendable than the Regio Esercito.

The Communist? Sure for the Allies and even the italian government they will be...still is Milan the second greatest Italian city, an ancient and very important one and regardless of who had died there it will be an enormous effect on the italians, expecially for the ferocity of the Germans.
Not considering that communist or not, not only if the italian government don't at least protest to the allies for the abandonement of the city they will lose a lot of legitimancy in the eyes of the population...and i say that considering that the allies hold all the cards here, still Milan is too big to not doing nothing and quietly accept that it had been sacrificed for the good of the allied war effort.
Not considering that well, being hold on your reproductive organ or not, everything had limit and boy Milan destruction is really one if the allied command simply sit on their derriere.
Sure who ever is in charge for Italy will start to use such event as a strong propaganda point towards a bigger support for Italy and even try to make the italians official allied member and not mere cobelligerant, probably trying to contact Fiorello la guardia and link with the italian diaspora in the USA to have more local support; but there will be also genuine outrage, expecially after having done whatever the allied demanded and received in exchange little more than nothing.
Frankly after the disaster of Milan, anyone from the King to the last doorman of the Quirinale will ask equipment to rebuild what remain of the italian armed forces (done OTL after seeing that the italians were the political will and operative capacity to fight...and ITTL well they also have showed that this exist in greater fashion). Not saying that this will be a quick effort but still showing that at least they have a fighting change and help is coming will increase the morale and it's a very low cost big gain for the allied as they simply need to give second line equipment to the italians as OTL.
Same for food and other resources for what remain of the industry, being a cobelligerant and at least mantain a level of goverment will ask for at least a loan to buy thing to mantain the nation in the war and also avoid a massive famine...a think that everyone want as it will make things harder, not considering that Winston plan was to use the italian in the pacific so there is a limit of how much they can be kicked when down